Alternative for Germany was projected Sunday, September 6, to win just over 44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, more than twice its 20.8% result five years ago. The showing is historic for the far-right AfD, but the first projections left it just short of an outright majority in the state legislature.
The short answer is that winning the most votes does not automatically mean governing. AfD still needs a majority of seats, a coalition partner or enough outside support to install its candidate, Ulrich Siegmund, as state governor. Germany’s established parties say they will maintain their “firewall” against cooperation with AfD, making every remaining seat consequential.
What the projections show
ARD and ZDF projections based on exit polls and early counting placed AfD a little above 44% and Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union at roughly 18.5%, according to the Associated Press. That would represent a collapse of about half the CDU’s support in a state it has led for 24 years.
Projections cited by El País put AfD at 39 seats, with 42 needed for an absolute majority. That arithmetic can still shift as votes are counted and smaller parties hover around the 5% threshold required to enter the legislature. The Saxony-Anhalt statistical office said a preliminary result was expected overnight or early Monday.
Why coalition math matters
AfD’s path to power depends on more than its vote share. If it remains below a seat majority and no party agrees to work with it, the CDU could attempt to assemble a minority or multiparty government. A similar pattern followed AfD’s 2024 victory in neighboring Thuringia, where the party finished first but did not lead the government.
The uncertainty is especially sharp because smaller parties may determine which blocs can reach a majority. The Left, Social Democrats and Greens were each projected around 9%. The BSW alliance was near the 5% cutoff, and its presence or absence could change the number of seats needed for control.
Why the result matters beyond one state
Saxony-Anhalt has about 2.1 million residents and only four of the 69 votes in the Bundesrat, Germany’s upper house. Its direct national power is limited. Politically, however, the result is a major warning to Merz: AfD has converted national discontent over migration, the economy and trust in government into its strongest state-level showing yet.
The state government controls important areas including education and security administration. AfD has called for a tougher deportation drive, changes to schooling and withdrawal from the regional public broadcaster. Some of its foreign-policy demands, including lifting sanctions on Russia, are outside a state government’s authority.
What happens next
The first test is the preliminary official result and the final seat distribution. Then parties will decide whether any governing arrangement can command a majority without AfD. The decisive question is no longer whether AfD can win a German state election; it is whether the coalition firewall can still keep a party with more than four in ten votes from leading the government.
